Dr Anton Pak

Senior Research Fellow

Centre for the Business and Economics of Health

+61 7 334 61164

a.pak@uq.edu.au

I’m a Senior Research Fellow at The University of Queensland’s Centre for the Business and Economics of Health (CBEH), specialising in applied health economics. My passion lies in advancing digital health solutions to empower individuals in making informed health decisions. Through collaborative efforts with hospitals, primary care facilities, and health consumer groups, I strive to develop and implement innovative digital health interventions.

My research also focuses on measuring the effectiveness of these solutions in improving patient experience, health outcomes, and overall health system efficiency. Leveraging my strong background in real-world data analysis and evaluation studies, coupled with expertise in advanced econometrics techniques, I actively collaborate with research and industry partners to address pertinent challenges within the healthcare sector.

I’m also passionate about teaching and have been actively contributing to the courses in the Graduate Certificate in Digital Health and Clinical Informatics as well as Executive Education session on the topics of health economics and digital health.

Research interests

Health economics and digital health interventions.

Real-world evidence: application of advanced econometrics and study designs to real-world data to support decision-making in healthcare.

Economic modelling of health behaviours: patients’ and consumers’ choices with respect to healthcare utilisation, particularly in primary and emergency care settings.

Applied econometrics and machine learning in health care: : using novel statistical approaches to achieve higher accuracy of emergency department waiting time forecasts.

Research impact

I’m dedicated to translating my research into practice and have presented my research outcomes to government and industry. In partnership with the Princess Alexandra Hospital, I designed and delivered an AI-based digital health innovation. This innovation provides patients with accurate waiting time forecasts, enhancing their experience in emergency departments. Moreover, it has the potential to generate efficiency gains across the entire emergency department network, addressing critical issues in patient distribution and reducing average waiting times.

Beyond industry contributions, my research has informed national and international policy documents, with citations in reports by organisations like the European Commission and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Additionally, I have been recognised by the World Health Organization, where I was an invited speaker at a health economics modelling webinar for the Western Pacific region.

Contact

To find out how we can collaborate and bring value to your organisation, I can be contacted via:
Email - a.pak@uq.edu.au
Connect with Anton on LinkedIn

Publications

Book Chapters (2)

Journal Articles (29)

Conference Papers (3)

Research Report (1)

Thesis (1)

Book Chapters

Adegboye, Oyelola, Alele, Faith, Pak, Anton, Alakunle, Emmanuel, Emeto, Theophilus, Leggat, Peter and Okeke, Malachy (2024). Monkeypox Outbreak 2022, from a Rare Disease to Global Health Emergence: Implications for Travellers. Poxviruses. (pp. 355-368) Singapore: Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-57165-7_23

Gayawan, Ezra, Adekunle, Adeshina I., Adegboye, Oyelola A. and Pak, Anton (2022). Statistical approaches to infectious diseases modelling in developing countries: a case of COVID-19. Promoting statistical practice and collaboration in developing countries. (pp. 557-581) edited by O. Olawale Awe, Kim Love and Eric A. Vance. New York, NY, United States: Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi: 10.1201/9781003261148-45

Journal Articles

Dawes, Nathan G., Topp, Stephanie M., Fullagar, Brittany J., Selman, Jason, Pak, Anton and Devine, Susan G. (2025). Social Determinants of Suicide and Suicidality in Serving Military Personnel: A Global Scoping Review. Health Promotion Journal of Australia, 36 (2) e70030. doi: 10.1002/hpja.70030

Pak, Anton, O'Grady, Madeline, Holtmann, Gerald, Shah, Ayesha and Tuffaha, Haitham (2025). Economic evaluations of non-pharmacological interventions for treating disorders of gut-brain interaction: a scoping review. PharmacoEconomics, 43 (3) e14578, 249-269. doi: 10.1007/s40273-024-01455-y

Bryazka, Dana, Reitsma, Marissa B, Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis, Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H A, Abdelkader, Atef, Abdollahi, Arash, Abdoun, Meriem, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel, Abhilash, E. S., Abiodun, Olugbenga Olusola, Abiodun, Olumide, Aboagye, Richard Gyan, Abreu, Lucas Guimarães, Abtahi, Dariush, Abualruz, Hasan, Abubakar, Bilyaminu, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Aburuz, Salahdein, Abu-Zaid, Ahmed, Adane, Mesafint Molla, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Adegboye, Oyelola A, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adewuyi, Habeeb Omoponle, Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah, Adzigbli, Leticia Akua, Afaghi, Siamak, Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika ... Gakidou, Emmanuela (2024). Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Public Health, 9 (10), e729-e744. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00166-X

Bender, Rose Grace, Sirota, Sarah Brooke, Swetschinski, Lucien R, Dominguez, Regina-Mae Villanueva, Novotney, Amanda, Wool, Eve E, Ikuta, Kevin S, Vongpradith, Avina, Rogowski, Emma Lynn Best, Doxey, Matthew, Troeger, Christopher E, Albertson, Samuel B, Ma, Jianing, He, Jiawei, Maass, Kelsey Lynn, A.F.Simões, Eric, Abdoun, Meriem, Abdul Aziz, Jeza Muhamad, Abdulah, Deldar Morad, Abu Rumeileh, Samir, Abualruz, Hasan, Aburuz, Salahdein, Adepoju, Abiola Victor, Adha, Rishan, Adikusuma, Wirawan, Adra, Saryia, Afraz, Ali, Aghamiri, Shahin, Agodi, Antonella ... GBD 2021 Lower Respiratory Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators (2024). Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 24 (9), 974-1002. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00176-2

Ratnayake, H. E., Eisen, D. P., Adegboye, O. A., Pak, A. and McBryde, E. S. (2024). Bacteraemia in tropical Australia: a review. Current Tropical Medicine Reports, 11 (4), 167-178. doi: 10.1007/s40475-024-00326-y

Pak, Anton, Pols, Thomas, Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas, McGrail, Matthew, Gurney, Tiana, Fox, Jordan L. and Tuffaha, Haitham (2024). A preference-based value framework to assess healthcare provision in an oil and gas industry. Australian Health Review, 48 (5), 524-529. doi: 10.1071/ah24111

Nwokora, Zim, Pak, Anton and Pelizzo, Riccardo (2024). The conditional effects of party system change on economic growth in Africa. Acta Politica. doi: 10.1057/s41269-024-00366-2

Fox, Jordan L., Gurney, Tiana, Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas, Pols, Thomas A. H., Tuffaha, Haitham, Pak, Anton and McGrail, Matthew (2023). A narrative review of health status and healthcare delivery in the oil and gas industry: impacts on employees, employers, and local communities. Healthcare, 11 (21) 2888, 1-17. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11212888

GBD 2019 IMID Collaborators, Moni, Mohammad Ali, Moniruzzaman, Md and Pak, Anton (2023). Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019. EClinicalMedicine, 64 102193, 102193. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102193

Trinh, Kelly, Staib, Andrew and Pak, Anton (2023). Forecasting emergency department waiting time using a state space representation. Statistics in Medicine, 42 (24), 1-26. doi: 10.1002/sim.9870

Mason, Suzanne, Wakai, Abel and Pak, Anton (2023). Who cares about the money: do health economic evaluation studies published in emergency medicine journals cut the mustard?. CJEM: Canadian journal of emergency medicine, 25 (8), 647-648. doi: 10.1007/s43678-023-00562-7

Adegboye, Oyelola A., Alele, Faith O., Castellanos, Maru E., Pak, Anton and Emeto, Theophilus I. (2023). Editorial: Environmental stressors, multi-hazards and their impact on health. Frontiers in Public Health, 11 1231955, 1-4. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1231955

Adegboye, Oyelola A., Alele, Faith O., Pak, Anton, Castellanos, Maria E., Abdullahi, Mohammed A. S., Okeke, Malachy I., Emeto, Theophilus I. and McBryde, Emma S. (2023). A resurgence and re-emergence of diphtheria in Nigeria, 2023. Therapeutic Advances in Infectious Disease, 10, 1-4. doi: 10.1177/20499361231161936

Gwaka, Joseph K., Demafo, Marcy A., N’konzi, Joel-Pascal N., Pak, Anton, Olumoh, Jamiu, Elfaki, Faiz and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2023). Machine-learning approach for risk estimation and risk prediction of the effect of climate on bovine respiratory disease. Mathematics, 11 (6) 1354, 1354. doi: 10.3390/math11061354

Adegboye, Oyelola A., Eugenia Castellanos, Maria, Alele, Faith O., Pak, Anton, Ezechukwu, Henry C., Hou, Kay and Emeto, Theophilus I. (2022). Travel-Related Monkeypox Outbreaks in the Era of COVID-19 Pandemic: Are We Prepared?. Viruses, 14 (6) 1283, 1283. doi: 10.3390/v14061283

Pak, Anton and Gannon, Brenda (2022). The effect of neighbourhood and spatial crime rates on mental wellbeing. Empirical Economics, 64 (1), 1-36. doi: 10.1007/s00181-022-02256-y

Pak, Anton, Adegboye, Oyelola A. and McBryde, Emma S. (2021). Are we better-off? The benefits and costs of Australian COVID-19 lockdown. Frontiers in Public Health, 9 798478, 798478. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.798478

Pak, Anton, Adegboye, Oyelola A., Eisen, Damon P. and McBryde, Emma S. (2021). Hospitalisations related to lower respiratory tract infections in Northern Queensland. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 45 (5), 430-436. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.13104

Pak, Anton and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2021). The importance of structural factors in COVID-19 response in Western Pacific. Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health, 33 (8), 101053952110359-978. doi: 10.1177/10105395211035932

Pak, A., Eisen, D. P., McBryde, E. S. and Adegboye, O. A. (2021). Hospitalisation for lower respiratory tract infection is associated with an increased incidence of acute myocardial infarction and stroke in tropical Northern Australia. Scientific Reports, 11 (1) 6826, 1-8. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86301-3

Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina, Pak, Anton, Gayawan, Ezra, Leung, Denis H. Y., Rojas, Diana P., Elfaki, Faiz, McBryde, Emma S. and Eisen, Damon P. (2021). Change in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: a modelling study. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 40 101988, 101988. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.101988

Pak, Anton and Gannon, Brenda (2021). Do access, quality and cost of general practice affect emergency department use?. Health Policy, 125 (4), 504-511. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.003

Pak, Anton, McBryde, Emma and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2021). Does high public trust amplify compliance with stringent COVID-19 government health guidelines? A multi-country analysis using data from 102,627 individuals. Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 14, 293-302. doi: 10.2147/rmhp.s278774

Pak, Anton, Gannon, Brenda and Staib, Andrew (2021). Predicting waiting time to treatment for emergency department patients. International Journal of Medical Informatics, 145 104303, 1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2020.104303

McBryde, Emma S., Meehan, Michael T., Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina, Caldwell, Jamie M., Pak, Anton, Rojas, Diana P., Williams, Bridget M. and Trauer, James M. (2020). Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development. Paediatric Respiratory Reviews, 35, 57-60. doi: 10.1016/j.prrv.2020.06.013

Pak, Anton, Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina I., Rahman, Kazi M., McBryde, Emma S. and Eisen, Damon P. (2020). Economic consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak: the need for epidemic preparedness. Frontiers in Public Health, 8 241. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00241

Araral, Eduardo, Pak, Anton, Pelizzo, Riccardo and Wu, Xun (2019). Neo-patrimonialism and corruption: evidence from 8,436 firms in 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Public Administration Review, 79 (4), 580-590. doi: 10.1111/puar.13023

Pak, Anton (2017). Predicting crude oil prices: Replication of the empirical results in "What do we learn from the price of crude oil?". Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33 (1), 160-163. doi: 10.1002/jae.2584

Pelizzo, Riccardo, Araral, Eduardo, Pak, Anton and Xun, Wu (2016). Determinants of bribery: theory and evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. African Development Review, 28 (2), 229-240. doi: 10.1111/1467-8268.12192

Conference Papers

Pak, A. (2023). The impact of co-locating GP-led minor injury clinic on pediatric emergency department. ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark, 11-15 November 2023. New York, United States: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.09.1565

Pak, A. and Trinh, K. (2023). Forecasting emergency department waiting times using deep neural networks. ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark, 11-15 November 2023. New York, United States: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.09.051

Howie, Peter and Pak, Anton (2015). Reducing fossil-fuel subsidies and the implication on inequality and poverty in Kazakhstan: a first estimate. 38th IAEE International Conference: Economic, Environmental, Technological and Security Challenges for Energy, Antalya, Turkey, 25-27 May 2015. The International Association for Energy Economics.

Research Report

Pak, Anton (2023). Evaluation of the pilot program of establishing GP-led Paediatric Minor Injury and Illness Clinic (P-MIIC) in the Queensland Children’s Hospital. Brisbane, QLD, Australia: The University of Queensland.

Thesis

Pak, Anton (2020). Essays on applied microeconometrics in health economics. PhD Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland. doi: 10.14264/uql.2020.209

Areas of research

Effective and efficient healthcare

Enhanced models of care and prevention